Race Time Predictor

Predict your finish time at any distance using the Riegel power law and the Daniels–Gilbert VO2max model.

Enter a recent race result and see predicted times at other distances. Three models: Daniels–Gilbert (VO2max-based, recommended), Riegel (exponent 1.06) and an exponent 1.10 variant that degrades faster as distance grows.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which model should I trust?

Daniels–Gilbert is the most robust across 5K to marathon because it accounts for the fraction of VO2max you can sustain at each duration.

How accurate is it?

Predictions assume distance-specific training. If you trained only for 10K, a marathon prediction will be optimistic.

Why is the 1.10 result sometimes faster?

A larger exponent amplifies the distance change: slower for longer races, faster for shorter ones. Use it as a conservative reference for longer distances.

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